High Reward Trades- US Wages annual growth best in a decade : Peak economy

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Economy Updates

U. S. employers added jobs at a strong pace in December. Wages posted their biggest full-year gain in a decade. This is against the backdrop of a falling stock markets weighed down by Tariffs and political tensions. However, stock prices rose on the economic news, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing Friday with a 3.3% gain. Last year, U.S. stocks in 2018 saw their worst yearly losses in a decade, and the Dow closed Thursday almost 16% below its September peak. Just this week, Apple Inc., citing economic problems in China, jolted investors by downgrading revenue-growth estimates. That reinforced fears that U.S. companies are only beginning to feel the impact of the trade dispute. Nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 312,000 in December, the Labor Department said Friday. That compared with the average gain of 215,000 a month over the previous five years. Average hourly earnings rose 3.2% in 2018, their biggest full-year gain of the expansion. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9% in December from 3.7% but remains low by historical standards.

Over the past 10 years, the value of financial assets held by U.S. households has increased from roughly 3.4 times to roughly 4.4 times the size of the U.S. economy, according to Mr. LaVorgna, chief economist for the Americas at Natixis.

The value of Americans’ financial assets—such as stocks, bonds and savings accounts—is at a record relative to the size of the economy, research from investment bank Natixis shows. That could mean the fate of the U.S. economy has never been more tethered to that of Wall Street, said economist Joseph LaVorgna—adding to the drama of each swing in the stock market and putting more pressure on Fed officials to consider market conditions when setting interest-rate policy.

We carry detailed updates on dollar index. Dollar is at decision point. A 50 pip move will decide the future trends. Login below to read the full report. We carry detailed analysis on the Friday Jobs report in the US. More trading setips on SPY, Natural Gas, GOLD, EURUSD, USDJPY and AUDUSD are provided below.

Tonnes of charts and setups and research below. Only visible to trade copier clients.

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The SPY has bounced from below 2400. However we do not think that the downtrend is over. The current bounce is a correction of the oversold conditions. RSI dipped below 20 mark which requires a bounce for normal trading. We think RSI will hit 50 or so before, market will resume downtrends.

Natural Gas

Natural Gas is ready for ripe picking. We see prices moving to 3.4 in near term. Good long with a stop under 2.7

Jobs Breakup

The jobs data showed healthy addition in all industries.

Friday’s jobs report, based on a monthly survey of 149,000 businesses is one of the most comprehensive surveys of economic activity across the nation, providing fresh evidence on whether businesses have the confidence to keep hiring.

A very good jobs report for December. The overall addition stood out from the previous months addition.

Wages grew at its best in over a decade. However it is still too early to say if the latest move was a mere exception or trend of upwards addition.

Dollar Index

Decision point : 95.5 to 96. Below 95.5 we see clear push down to 94.1. Above 96.5, we see push to 100 in the coming months.

EURUSD is looking more and more bearish as days go by. However it has been supported on the downside till now on expectation of a ECB rate hike. We prefer the downside as long the pair is under 1.1450.

GOLD has paused at 1300. This makes us bearish in near term. A fall to 1250 and possibly below 1200 is looking more likely

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