Last friday was the option expiry for options from various markets. This had a effect on forex trends and its best to be light on trading during those days.
In weekend news, once again we see brexit impasse has found no solution. May deal is basically a not a deal but a delaying tactic. The major issue with brexit is this:
- Good friday agreement between Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland prohibits a hard border.
- BREXIT requires a hard border between Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland.
We basically have two opposing agreement. Neither can be broken. If hard border is implemented, Ireland will bleed in civil war. If hard border is not implemented, there will be NO BREXIT. UK has voted to get out. Therefore there is simply no solution out of this mess other than a hard border and risk civil war. David Cameron was the man who started this and he probably knew this was going to end in war and he quietly slipped out of the scene.
GBPUSD will not survive much if the above situation is to happen. There is a chance of a second referendum but May need to resign for that and that will again mean a pounding for GBPUSD.
EURUSD : Trend continuation
EURUSD bounce of 1.1160 was expected as it was an area of strong oversold. However it is now approaching resistance at 1.1350..We see some pullback to 1.1270 and potential continuation to 1.1130.
GBPUSD : Trend continuation
GBPUSD hits overbought zone at 1.3350 and has promptly corrected back. The 1.3350 is an area of strong resistance and unlikely to break given the brexit impasse. Some retracement to 1.3150 is definitely cominga
FXCOT trades the pair automatically so its not concerned where it will go. It looks at price action at pivot levels and trades those levels with stops and targets and trailing stops.
USDJPY : Could surprise
USDJPY has solid support at 111.4. The upside is open but it can take fairly long time to start. Only move above 112. 15 will suggest continuation of uptrend. Until then it will be range trading for USDJPY
The performance of the system in March has been strong. Its at +8.2%. Returns rise strongly when conditions are met while at other times, they are stable. Last week was one such week where the system was the traded currencies were not trending due to option expiry. We have a new week starting and returns overall for 2019 now stands at +53%.
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